Someone has turned up the thermostat. It is awfully hot around here these days but I cannot complain because it is much hotter in all the countries around us, and even in southern Europe. We also have air conditioning and electricity unlike so many others in this region. I thought it was just because of my aging that it seems hotter every year, but the statistics show an exponential increase over the last 60 years (1). In 1960-70s there were less than 20 days per year when the daytime temperature exceeded 30 degrees Celsius in Tel Aviv, but this has steadily increased until now when we are experiencing in excess of 80 such days per year.
https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2021/08/dagan_heat_waves_annual_count_1-1338×2048-1.jpg
This summer is no exception and we are currently embroiled in a heatwave which has lasted one week so far and there is no end in sight. Here in the Judean mountains its about 35 degrees with a humidity of around 15-20%. The low humidity makes it bearable but it is still unpleasant to be out of doors and it saps your strength. Elsewhere around the country it is much more humid and temperatures are also higher, especially at night. Around the Sea of Galilee, the Dead Sea and Eilat temperatures are well into the 40s.
The biggest problem with the heat is the fire risk. There are many fires every day around the country, most of them caused by negligence or deliberate arson. Two days ago there was a large fire that threatened the moshav of Shoresh about 15km west of Jerusalem. Sixty families were evacuated and the main Tel Aviv – Jerusalem highway was closed for several hours. Also evacuated were several thousand girls participating in a summer camp activity in the area. Eight fire-fighting planes, a helicopter and 24 fire crews managed to get the fire under control by nightfall and no homes or other properties were damaged.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/large-wildfire-breaks-out-in-forest-near-jerusalem-675717
In the last couple of days there have been several other fires in this area, and even as I write several have yet to be contained in the outskirts of Jerusalem in Kiryat Yovel and the Lifta area. (As far as I know the fires were contained and no property was damaged)
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/large-wildfire-breaks-out-in-forest-near-jerusalem-675717
Please pray for our brave and hard working fire fighters. It is hot and dangerous work and they have saved many lives and homes. Please pray for those of us, including myself, who live in these tinder dry pine and cypress forests. The forest comes right up to the edge of our property. At least some of the fires are being lit by Palestinian terrorists. Israeli fire fighters have also been sent to Greece to help fight the terrible fires there.
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER
It is not only the weather that is heating up around here. Yesterday ( 04/08) three rockets were fired across the northern border triggering sirens in Kiryat Shmona and some other towns in the area. One rocket fell short in Lebanese territory but the other two landed near the city of Kiryat Shmona, thankfully in an open field, causing brush fires but no injuries, except for 4 people treated for shock. This is just the most recent of five such incidents lately and our security people say these rockets are not being fired by Hezbollah operatives but by Palestinian factions in Lebanon. Even so, they would not be able to do this without the permission of the Hezbollah that controls the border region. It is just part of the growing proxy war being waged against Israel by Iran.
Israel has responded with the firing of about 1000 rounds of artillery fire into Lebanon, aimed to avoid civilian or other casualties. It may seem like an excessive response which could ignite the situation further, but it is intended to send a strong message. Israel will not tolerate violations of its sovereignty especially when they threaten our towns and people.
Israel holds Lebanon responsible for such attacks even though the Lebanese government is incapable of controlling all the factions in its land. Lebanon is in total disarray and its society is in meltdown. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s economic crisis probably ranks in the top three most severe anywhere in the world since the 1850s (2). Their currency is in free-fall, and around 50% of the population is living in dire poverty. Food, medicine and fuel supplies are hard to find and prohibitively expensive for many, and the electricity supply is erratic to non- existent. Two days ago it was the first anniversary of the terrible explosion in Beirut in which at least 214 were killed, more injured and thousands were left homeless. There is no money to rebuild the homes and properties that were destroyed and the people are becoming more and more angry. Add to that the current heat wave and drought, the Covid pandemic, and the fact that there is no functioning government, and we have a nightmare situation developing right on our door step. Russia and Iran are poised to move in and take over.
Update: Friday 6 August 2021
Nineteen rockets were fired into Israel this morning from Lebanon, sending residents of the Golan and the Galilee panhandle running for their shelters. Ten of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome system, 6 fell in open areas and 3 fell short of the border (3). There were no casualties. Iranian-backed Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for these 19 rockets and say they did not intend to cause any casualties, but Israel’s Iron Dome system is only activated when missiles are heading towards built up areas or military installations. Things are escalating seriously.
After Friday’s attack there was a significant new development. The local Druze villagers captured the terrorists who had fired the rockets into Israel and handed them over to the Lebanese army. This indicates a growing anger amongst the Lebanese people against Hezbollah and a weakening of Hezbollah’s power. These attacks on Israel occurred on the anniversary of the explosion in Beirut which many blame on Hezbollah, and there is a theory that this latest attack was intended to divert attention away from that and regain a greater measure of popular support.
Update: Wednesday 11 September 2021
Since my last update the situation in the north has remained tense but there have been no further cross-border attacks.
IRAN
Always hovering in the background of events in the Middle East is Iran. Today (05/08) their new President, Ebrahim Raisi, was sworn in. He has sworn to free Iran of the ‘tyrannical sanctions’ imposed by the USA (3). In spite of these crippling sanctions and the growing economic crisis and civil unrest, Iran is still investing billions in the development of a nuclear weapon, and other weaponry, with which to ‘destroy the little Satan’, Israel. Iran is also being hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Yesterday (04/08), well into its 5th wave, over 39 thousand new cases were registered in just 24 hours (4) , the highest per capita infection rate in the Middle East.
In spite of all these domestic problems Iran is still waging against Israel a proxy war which is escalating. On the 29th of July a merchant vessel, the ” HMV Mercer Street” off the coast of Oman was attacked by drones and two crew members, one British and the other Romanian, were killed. The ship is Japanese owned but managed by a London-based firm which is owned by an Israeli billionaire (5). The UK, USA and Israel have all blamed Iran for this attack.
(Photo: Twitter)
A few days later, on Tuesday, six oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah (UAE) announced around the same time that they had lost power and could no longer steer (7). One of those ships, the Asphalt Princess was boarded by 5-6 armed Iranians, who it is believed intended to hijack the ship and take it to Iran. The ship was tracked on course towards Iran until on Wednesday morning it stopped and changed course back towards Oman. It turns out that the crew of the ship had prevented the hijack by deliberately sabotaging the engines of the ship. The boarding party fled when UK and Omani warships arrived at the scene (7). I do not know what happened to the other ships involved.
This is just the latest of many attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 1/5 of the world’s oil supply is transported. Fujairah, on the UAE’s eastern coast, is a main port in the region in which ships take on new oil cargo, pick up supplies or trade out crew (7). Iran, of course, has denied all involvement – but no one believes them!
Yesterday (11/08) Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, met with the CIA Chief, William Burns, to discuss the situation in the Middle East and specifically Iran and the proposed renewal of the Nuclear Deal of 2015 (8). The Head of Israel’s Mossad, David Barnea, handed Burns a dossier on the Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi intended to demonstrate that he is exceptionally extreme, cruel, corrupt and mentally unstable and therefore incapable of negotiating a new nuclear deal or sticking to his commitments. Israel is trying to dissuade the US government from pursuing negotiations with Iran. Iran has demonstrated again and again that it does not take any agreement seriously and cannot be trusted.
In 1988 Raisi was one of a four man “death commission” that ordered the execution of around 5000 dissident prisoners in Iran. Another member of this “death commission” was Hamid Noury, who at the time was allegedly assistant to the deputy prosecutor of Gohardasht prison in Karaj, near Tehran. Two days ago the trial of Noury began in Sweden and he is being charged with war crimes relating to this 1988 massacre (9).
One week after Raisi assumed office he presented his new cabinet ministers. The new Minister of the Interior is IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) General Ahmad Vahidi (10). There is an international arrest order on Vahidi for his involvement in the 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Jewish Mutual Association building in Buenos Aires which killed 85 people and wounded hundreds( 11) . The Foreign Minister is hardline career diplomat Hossein Amirabdollahian, an avowed anti-Westerner believed to have close relations with the Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon as well as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards force (12). How can the USA even contemplate negotiating with such a corrupt and evil government?
GAZA
The Gaza front has been relatively quiet but last Friday (06/08) incendiary balloons were released into Israel by the so-called ” Balloon Unit” of Hamas. These balloons ignited at least 4 fires in Nature Reserves near the Gaza border. On Saturday night Israeli warplanes struck a military camp and a rocket-launching position in the Gaza Strip (13).
It is also concerning that ISIS-inspired factions are gaining ground in Gaza. Last Friday (06/08) the newly opened Bianca beach resort was damaged by explosives planted by one such group. They accused the resort of holding a music concert for men and women together. No one was hurt in this attack but a message was sent (14). These Salafist-Jihadi groups are even more extreme than Hamas.
No longer will you see the insolent people,
Isaiah 33: 19-22
the people of an obscure speech that you cannot comprehend,
stammering in a language that you cannot understand.
20 Look on Zion, the city of our appointed festivals!
Your eyes will see Jerusalem,
a quiet habitation, an immovable tent,
whose stakes will never be pulled up,
and none of whose ropes will be broken.
21 But there the Lord in majesty will be for us
a place of broad rivers and streams,
where no galley with oars can go,
nor stately ship can pass.
22 For the Lord is our judge, the Lord is our ruler,
the Lord is our king; he will save us.
CORONAVIRUS
Coronavirus is back in Israel, not that it ever went away. In June we had two straight weeks with no deaths and only a handful of new cases. We began to hope that life could return to ‘normal’ (whatever that is around here). Since then however the Delta variant of the virus has taken hold and the numbers are rising exponentially. Yesterday (10/08) we had 6270 new cases reported in 24 hours, and now some 40 severe cases are being admitted to hospital daily. Our hospitals will soon be overwhelmed again. To try and slow this 4th wave some regulations have been reimposed, but the regulations are changing on an almost daily basis which is causing a lot of confusion and contributing to the non-compliance of many.
Some are asking why is this happening given that around 80% of our eligible population (all those over 12) have been fully vaccinated. There are basically five reasons: the Delta variant is some 5 times more infectious than the previous variants, there have been a large number of Israelis travelling abroad and coming home infected, and many are ignoring the regulations, which are not being enforced effectively. The fourth reason is that there are still around 1 million eligible Israelis who have not been vaccinated. Finally, the efficacy of vaccines in those vaccinated first, namely the elderly, is now beginning to wear off. For this reason Israel has begun to give a third dose to those over 60 or who are immunosuppressed, and may soon extend this to younger people as well. (Update: we are now giving a third dose to the over 50s)
Around 50% of those falling ill are people who have been fully vaccinated and this also is making people say, “If so, what is the point of getting vaccinated?” This statistic is somewhat misleading. Because more people are vaccinated than not, the 10% of the vaccinated who fall ill are numerically as high as those who are unvaccinated. However in Israel the data shows that those who are unvaccinated have around 5 times greater chance of getting seriously ill, and the risk is even higher for the elderly, as the graphs released yesterday by Israel’s Health Department show:
The video below explains this clearly and I would recommend everyone to watch it as the information is applicable to any country. Israel is really the canary in the coal mine. Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate a significant proportion of our population and the vaccines were given out very quickly, and this means that we are ahead of most countries in terms of the waning of the effect of the vaccines. What is happening here will probably start happening in other countries in the next month or so.
The good news is that Israel is developing a drug that treats Covid and, though still in early trials, this appears to provide hope for the severely ill. In a trial with 88 patients in Greece (there were not enough severely ill in Israel at the time), none progressed to needing a ventilator and 90% were released from hospital within 5 days (14). The inventor of this drug, Prof. Nadir Arber of Israel’s Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv said, “Doctors reported good responses, and this is very encouraging and supports our hope that this drug could be a game changer” (14). Arber pointed out however that firm conclusions can’t be drawn until the trial is followed up by testing that involves a group with some patients being given a placebo for comparison.
Another ray of hope lies in the development of a Covid vaccine that can be delivered as a pill. Such a vaccine is being developed by the Israeli company, Oramed Pharmaceuticals. The vaccine is about to undergo clinical trials in Israel. An oral vaccine which does not need to be refrigerated or administered by a medical professional would be of great help to those countries with poor distribution and medical infrastructure. Nadav Kidron, the CEO of Oramed said, “Our oral vaccine, which doesn’t rely on a deep freeze supply chain, unlike other coronavirus vaccines, could mean all the difference between a country being able to emerge from the pandemic or not” (16).
But now I will not deal with the remnant of this people as I did in the past,’ declares the Lord Almighty.
‘The seed will grow well, the vine will yield its fruit, the ground will produce its crops, and the heavens will drop their dew. I will give all these things as an inheritance to the remnant of this people. Just as you, Judah and Israel, have been a curse among the nations, so I will save you, and you will be a blessing.
Zechariah 8: 11-13
BACK TO SCHOOL AND THE HIGH HOLY DAYS
In less than 3 weeks Israeli schools will reopen. The CDC has not yet approved the vaccination of children under the age of 12, and discussions are being held about how schools can reopen in the current wave. One possibility is to require testing at the gates. Another is to delay the reopening until after the High Holy Days.
One week after the schools reopen we start the period of the High Holy Days, that includes Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur and Succot (the Feast of Tabernacles). These are holy days during which people gather in extended family groups for shared meals and attend synagogues in large numbers. The Corona Cabinet is considering a 4-6 week lockdown over the High Holy Days to try and prevent the spread of the virus resulting from these large gatherings of people, and in order to bring the rate of infections down. The reasoning being that since there are many holy days during this period, a lockdown at this time would have the least effect on the economy. There is a lot of opposition to such a move, and no one wants another lockdown, but it seems more and more likely to be called.
AFGHANISTAN
Following the pullout of USA military in Afghanistan the Taliban has moved with lightning speed to take over the country. The map below shows the situation two days ago. With the Taliban rapidly approaching the capital, Kabul, embassies are scrambling to evacuate staff and destroy sensitive documents. Many Afghanis who worked with US and other foreign military forces are desperate to flee what is likely to be certain death.
The Taliban are an extreme fundamentalist force that ruled Afghanistan until 1996 when they were toppled by the USA military. They sheltered Osama bin Laden as he planned the September 11 Twin Towers attack on the USA and ruled with strict Islamic shariya law. The Taliban banned television and music, barred girls from attending school and made women wear head-to-toe coverings called burqua. The withdrawal of American and other NATO forces will be interpreted as a victory over the west and this will reinforce their extremist views. It also means that all the lives that were lost fighting the Taliban will have been lost for nothing. The American intervention and withdrawal may well leave the citizens of Afghanistan in a far worse situation than before. As Engel (of NBC) said on Twitter that, “Some say Afghanistan is coming full circle. Taliban were in power, now returning. It’s much worse than that: people tasted freedom, and Taliban can now claim they drove the US out. So it’s not back to the beginning, but to a new, far worse place.” May God have mercy.
References:
- https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2021/08/dagan_heat_waves_annual_count_1-1338×2048-1.jpg
- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-04/lebanons-collapse-continues-one-year-after-beirut-blast/100343112
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/rocket-alert-sirens-sound-in-golan-heights/
- https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/khamenei-to-endorse-raisi-today-as-new-iranian-president-675695
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-covid-cases-top-4-million-as-mideasts-worst-hit-country-sees-new-surge/
- https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/britains-top-general-calls-retaliation-iran-drone-strike
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/crew-of-tanker-off-uae-coast-said-to-thwart-iran-hijacking-by-sabotaging-engines/
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-meets-cia-chief-burns-to-discuss-iran-increased-israel-us-cooperation/
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-official-on-trial-in-sweden-for-war-crimes-tied-to-new-president-raisi/
- https://iranintl.com/en/iran/irans-raisi-forms-cabinet-including-terror-and-corruption-suspects
- https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/1628692225-iran-s-raisi-showcases-his-cabinet-of-conservatives
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-face-of-irans-new-terror-govt-israel-lambasts-makeup-of-raisis-cabinet/
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-denies-palestinian-claims-it-struck-gaza-in-response-to-incendiary-balloons/
- https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/gaza-resort-bombed-for-holding-mixed-gender-concert-676168
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/88-patients-0-intubated-israeli-precision-covid-drug-wrapping-up-early-trial/
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-covid-vaccine-in-pill-form-to-start-clinical-trial-in-tel-aviv/